Two researchers from the National Centre for Atmospheric Science were among the experts invited to contribute to a recent Government Office for Science rapid report examining the impacts of what could be one of the strongest El Niño events ever recorded, with implications for weather, food security, energy systems and economies in the UK and around the world.

Dr Ioana Colfescu (NCAS and University of St Andrews) and Dr Akshay Deoras (NCAS and the University of Reading) participated in an expert roundtable convened by the Government Office for Science and chaired by Professor Stephen Belcher, Chief Scientist at the Met Office. The discussion brought together leading specialists to assess what current climate models indicate about the likely impacts of El Niño over the coming year.

The roundtable found growing confidence that a significant El Niño is developing, with some forecasts suggesting it could be among the strongest ever observed.

While the impacts on UK weather are still uncertain, the assessment points to a higher chance of wetter, stormier conditions through autumn and early winter, followed by an increased risk of colder spells later in the season.

The report also highlights potential knock-on effects for global food supplies, including crops such as rice, coffee and cocoa, as well as added pressure on international energy markets.

Through research on climate phenomena like El Niño, NCAS scientists are helping to improve understanding of how global weather and climate systems affect society. By contributing scientific expertise to government assessments, NCAS researchers like Ioana and Akshay are making science accessible for policymakers and supporting evidence-based decision-making.