More than ever, we are aware of the relationship between society and the atmosphere, and its defining role in the future of our planet. Unprecedented climate records serve as stark and growing reminders of the changing atmosphere in the UK and around the world. The next five years of research and innovation in atmospheric science are critical, as we collectively address many pressing environmental challenges.

We are sharing some of our research at the National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS) that aims to understand our changing climate, as the United Nations Climate Change Conference, COP30, starts this week.

As East Africa moves toward a low-carbon future, renewable energy sources like wind, solar, and hydropower are becoming central to Kenya’s development strategy. Because these renewable energy sources depend on weather conditions, they are vulnerable to low winds, droughts, or heavy cloud cover.

Understanding regional weather patterns – and the impact of climate change on them – is important for improving grid stability, energy storage, and planning. The POWER-Kenya project, led by NCAS and launched in 2025, is exploring how sub-seasonal forecasts can strengthen Kenya’s renewable energy resilience and improve power system management.

POWER-Kenya unites UK and Kenyan climate scientists, meteorologists, and energy sector stakeholders to co-develop tailored climate services. Through workshops and data sharing with key institutions such as the Kenya Electricity Generating Company and the Ministry of Energy, the project focuses on identifying and predicting “energy stress events” that threaten electricity generation. 

South Asia has endured severe monsoon seasons in recent years, with Pakistan suffering catastrophic floods in 2022 caused by exceptionally heavy rainfall between June and August. The floods claimed more than 1,500 lives, displaced millions, and devastated agriculture and livestock – creating long-lasting humanitarian and economic impacts. In the aftermath, scientists have been working to understand how much climate change contributed to this disaster.

Researchers from the National Centre for Atmospheric Science and the University of Oxford have developed a new method called forecast-based attribution, which uses seasonal weather forecasts to study the role of climate change in extreme events. Before the 2022 floods, several models had already predicted unusually high rainfall across Pakistan, suggesting that such forecasts could be used both to predict and to analyse climate impacts. By running simulations under different atmospheric conditions (pre-industrial, current, and future warmer scenarios), the researchers explored how human-driven climate change might have altered the monsoon rainfall patterns.

The findings were complex – indicating that natural variability from La Niña also played a major role. Forecast-based attribution offers a powerful new tool for understanding climate impacts in near real time. For vulnerable nations like Pakistan, this approach can inform adaptation strategies and strengthen preparedness against future disasters by linking scientific evidence with policy and humanitarian planning.

Researchers from NCAS, the University of York, and the University of Cambridge have been using the FAAM Airborne Laboratory’s research aircraft to measure nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions from commercial planes flying over the UK, with the aim of determining how these emissions influence global climate processes.

Like car engines, aircraft emit NOx during fuel combustion, which harms air quality and contributes to the formation of ozone and the depletion of methane – both potent greenhouse gases. 

This research will enable scientists to refine long-term projections, assess the effectiveness of emission controls and climate policies, and share information that will reduce the uncertainty about aviation’s contribution to atmospheric chemistry and its overall warming or cooling effects on Earth’s climate.

We are witnessing an alarming rate of ice sheet melt across Greenland in the Arctic. As climate change accelerates, the need for innovative and adaptive scientific solutions has never been greater.

A state of the art automated and mobile observatory – that will bridge critical air-ice observational gaps and lay the groundwork for an early warning system for ice sheet melt – is being developed by the GAMB2LE project led by the National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS), in collaboration with University of Colorado Boulder, Menapia Ltd, and Polar Field Services.

Focusing on the atmosphere-ice interface, the new observatory will be optimised to continuously collect high-resolution data in even the most challenging cold environments – redefining how scientists observe and understand the climate tipping points of the Greenland Ice Sheet.