COP31 and climate science in action
Today, we increasingly recognise the close relationship between society and the atmosphere, and the vital role it plays in our planet’s future. Record-breaking climate extremes are a growing reminder that the atmosphere is changing in the UK and around the world. The next five years of atmospheric science research and innovation will be crucial as we work together to address pressing environmental challenges.
As the United Nations Climate Change Conference, COP31, begins this week, we’re highlighting research from the National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS) that is helping to improve our understanding of our changing climate.
Analysing changing cold spells in a warming climate
Cold spells remain a feature of UK weather, but new NCAS research shows that they are becoming less frequent, less intense, and shorter as the climate warms. While cold spells can be harmful to human health and infrastructure, warmer winters have negative impacts too – including the increase of pests and illnesses, disrupted water supplies and drought risks, and agriculture failures.
The research also highlights the need to better understand how cold extremes will continue to change in a warming world. Improving knowledge of these trends can help governments, businesses, and communities prepare for future weather risks while adapting to a changing climate.
This is a clear sign of how the next generations are already experiencing a different winter than we did because of global warming. A better understanding of how temperature extremes will change in the future will help us better prepare and adapt to our changing climate.
– Weronika Osmólska, a doctoral scientist at NCAS specialising in extreme cold weather events.
Understanding climate-critical emissions from the oceans
The oceans play a vital role in regulating Earth’s climate, but many of the natural gases released from the ocean surface and their effects on clouds and climate remain poorly understood. Improving our understanding of these marine emissions is important for reducing uncertainty in climate predictions and understanding how our climate may change in the future.
Researchers from NCAS are taking part in an international expedition across the Atlantic Ocean to investigate the gases and particles emitted by marine ecosystems. Using advanced atmospheric measurements, scientists are studying how these emissions influence air quality, cloud formation, and the climate system.
The expedition will provide valuable observations from parts of the ocean where data are limited, helping to improve climate and Earth system models. By revealing how the ocean and atmosphere interact, the research will help scientists better predict future climate change and support informed decisions about climate adaptation and resilience.
These remote ocean processes have strong impacts on climate. Improving our understanding of how gases and particles are exchanged between the ocean and atmosphere will help us refine predictions of future climate change.
– Dr Pete Edwards, a research scientist at NCAS and the University of York.
Measuring rising desert dust pollution
Desert dust carried from North Africa into Europe is increasing, with implications for air quality, public health, and renewable energy systems. While pollution from transport and industry has declined in recent decades, climate-driven changes in the environment mean that natural sources of airborne particles are becoming increasingly important.
An international team of scientists, including researchers from NCAS, analysed data from more than 100 monitoring stations across Europe alongside atmospheric modelling and artificial intelligence. They found that desert dust levels have risen by 10-25% over the last decade, particularly across southern and western Europe. The research suggests that drying conditions in the Sahara and changes in atmospheric circulation, linked to human-caused climate change, are contributing to stronger dust transport events.
The findings highlight another way that climate change can affect people and communities. As desert dust becomes a more significant source of air pollution, improved forecasting will help scientists better understand future risks, support public health planning, and enable energy providers to manage impacts on solar power generation more effectively. Understanding these changing patterns will be increasingly important as Europe adapts to a changing climate.
Replaying the past to understand a warmer future
Understanding how familiar weather patterns might change in a warmer climate can help communities, businesses, and decision-makers prepare for future climate risks.
Researchers from NCAS, University of Reading, University of Edinburgh, University of Colorado Boulder, and NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory recreated the weather of 1903 using historical observations and advanced climate models. They then simulated the same weather patterns under higher temperatures and atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, allowing them to isolate the effects of climate change on weather conditions.
The study shows that even when familiar weather patterns occur, the conditions we experience can be very different in a warmer climate. Cold days become milder, warm days become hotter, and rainfall becomes more intense when it occurs. These changes could increase flood risk, affect ecosystems that depend on colder conditions, and lead to greater exposure to heat during warm periods.
By connecting climate change with weather events people can recognise and relate to, the research provides valuable insights into how a warming climate may affect everyday life and helps improve understanding of future climate risks.
By anchoring our analysis in real historical weather patterns, we are able to provide a more tangible sense of how a warming world translates into lived experience.
– Dr Rhidian Thomas, a climate scientist at the National Centre for Atmospheric Science and University of Reading.
Building climate-resilient energy systems in Bangladesh
As climate change increases the risk of extreme weather, understanding how it affects critical infrastructure is becoming increasingly important. In Bangladesh, tropical cyclones can have major impacts on electricity supplies, highlighting the need for resilient energy systems that can support communities and economic development.
Researchers from NCAS, University of Reading, and Newcastle University analysed a decade of electricity supply data alongside meteorological records to investigate how tropical cyclones affect Bangladesh’s power system. Their study found that cyclones reduce electricity supply by an average of 20%, with even greater impacts in coastal regions during the most severe events.
The findings show how climate risks can affect both existing energy infrastructure and the transition to low-carbon energy systems. By improving understanding of these risks, the research can help policymakers and energy providers strengthen infrastructure, improve grid resilience, and support reliable electricity supplies in a changing climate. This evidence will be increasingly important as countries work to build sustainable and climate-resilient energy systems.
By combining real electricity data with detailed storm information, our study shows that tropical cyclones are associated with major shortfalls in electricity delivered to users across Bangladesh. It also shows that current backup strategies, such as importing electricity, may not work in the most extreme events, which highlights the need for more resilient energy systems in the future.
Our work underscores the need to embed climate risk into energy planning – from diversifying generation sources and improving grid flexibility to strengthening infrastructure and regional cooperation. Building resilient energy systems will be key to securing reliable, low-carbon power in a future shaped by more extreme weather.
– Dr Kieran Hunt, NCAS research scientist and Associate Professor in Tropical Meteorology and AI at the University of Reading.
Preparing for low-likelihood, high-impact climate risks
Most climate projections focus on the most likely outcomes of climate change. However, understanding a wider range of possible futures can help governments, businesses, and communities make informed decisions and prepare for future climate risks.
Researchers from NCAS, the University of Reading, and the National Oceanography Centre have developed a suite of physically plausible climate scenarios for the UK that explore extreme but credible future conditions. These include stronger warming, accelerated sea level rise, changes in Atlantic Ocean circulation, and more severe extremes of heat, rainfall, drought, and wind. The scenarios are not predictions. Instead, they provide tools that can help planners test how resilient infrastructure and services may be under a range of future climate conditions.
The research highlights the importance of considering both likely and less likely climate outcomes when planning for the future. By exploring a wider range of climate risks, scientists can help identify where additional adaptation measures may be needed and support efforts to build resilient communities, infrastructure, and services in a changing climate.
Understanding “what’s the worst that could happen?” is not about fear-mongering, it’s about being prepared. In an era of accelerating climate impacts, planning with both probability and possibility in mind may prove one of the most important investments for future resilience.
– Professor Ed Hawkins, a climate scientist at the National Centre for Atmospheric Science and University of Reading.
Identifying emerging drought hotspots in a warming world
Climate change is affecting drought risk in ways that are not always obvious. New research shows that soils can become drier even in regions where rainfall is expected to increase, with important implications for agriculture, water resources, and food security.
Researchers from NCAS, the National Centre for Earth Observation, the University of Leeds, and the University of Reading used climate models to investigate how global warming affects soil moisture during key growing seasons. They found that agricultural drought is becoming more frequent and severe across parts of Europe, North America, southern Africa, and northern South America, including some regions where overall rainfall is projected to rise. This is because warmer temperatures increase evaporation and cause soils to lose moisture more quickly.
The research highlights that rainfall alone does not determine drought risk. Soil moisture, which crops rely on for growth, is also influenced by temperature, vegetation, snow cover, and water availability. By identifying emerging drought hotspots that can be missed by conventional assessments, the study improves understanding of where climate change may have the greatest impacts on agriculture and water resources.
These findings can help support climate adaptation, sustainable water management, and long-term food security planning. Understanding how drought risks are changing will help communities and policymakers make informed decisions and build resilience to a changing climate.
We linked global warming effects to changes in the land-surface water balance, which meant we were able to identify emerging drought hotspots around the world. Our approach captures drought hotspots that are overlooked by standard methods, which look at annual data, rather than with each growing season.
– Professor Emily Black, a climate and terrestrial processes scientist, at the National Centre for Atmospheric Science and University of Reading.