Spring 2025 has surprised us with unexpected sunshine and warmth. While many have enjoyed the pleasant weather, the unusually dry conditions have led to wildfires, droughts, and increasing concerns for impacts on agriculture in the UK. 

We spoke to Matt Patterson – a research fellow who’s recently joined us at the National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS) at University of St Andrews. He is a part of a new NCAS research group led by Dr Ioana Colfescu where they are using machine learning techniques in weather and climate science.

The weather in the UK this spring has been dominated by persistent high pressure – often known as ‘blocking’ systems. These high pressure systems have blocked the usual flow of moist air from the North Atlantic, warming the air and suppressing the formation of clouds. Instead, the rain-bearing weather systems have been diverted north or south – for example, Spain has had an unusually wet spring. 

Is climate change making these weather conditions more common? “It isn’t clear whether blocking systems like this are becoming any more common with climate change. This is partly because there is a huge amount of variability in the atmosphere from year to year. However, it is clear that all seasons are becoming warmer – for example, UK springs are roughly 1.3C warmer than in the 1970s,” says Matt.

With climate change intensifying, the weather in the UK is expected to become more uneven, with higher contrasts between very wet and prolonged dry periods. As Matt explains, “This so-called ‘weather whiplash’ is due to the intensification of the hydrological cycle as a warmer atmosphere can hold more water vapour. In effect, the atmosphere more quickly evaporates moisture and moves it away, making dry periods more likely, especially in summer. But when it does rain, there is more moisture in the atmosphere to unload in a given period, leading to heavier rain.”